UPDATE 11/11/09 - So SP stepped up and established the battle lines for 2010-2016. It's General 'Eisenhower' Palin and the 9/12-Tea Partiers against the DC elite axis - Both Republican and Democrat.
Even though Hoffman lost the NY-23 race, Sarah's endorsement drew out the Republican DC Republican establishment and beat them soundly. How do you know? Look at their response. The NRSC has backed off medaling in primaries. The NRCC and the House leaders accepted Sarah's Facebook endorsement of their health care plan. You don't hear a lot beltway based 'Sarah is bad' stories.
Lefty, socialist media is struggling to say Sarah lost NY-23. Winning NY-23 with Hoffman certainly was a Sarah objective. In hindsight, I am not convinced Sarah's primary objective was electing Hoffman. The Republican establishment did its best to hide its mischief in NY-23 and failed to an important audience - the conservative base of America. A key component of Sarah's political viability lies in her ability to motivate the base and earn their trust. Paraphrasing the Whitehouse's great political icon Mau, "Elites fight your war and Sarah will fight hers."
The DC Republican establishment demonstrates a remarkable inability to understand and play power politics. I'm confident if they step out of line, there will be an incisive Facebook posting to set the Republican establishment straight. The Republican establishment needs Sarah. Sarah needs the infrastructure of the Republican Party. The Republican elites have a choice. My bet is a political entity will make a political decision for self preservation. How will you know? Listen for who in the Republican establishment uses Sara's catch phrase - "common sense."
As the NY-23 battle unfolded, Sarah marginalized Romney and Huckabee. She made Tim Pawlenty look like the follower. Newt destroyed himself completing his transition to beltway insider. All are Republican establishment members. She demonstrated her fund-raising capability and signaled to anyone listening that she's got her eye on 2012.
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UPDATE 10/22/09 - Looks like Palin's decided to be a Patton, or maybe a Bradley by sending money & leveraging Facebook to give Hoffman an endorsement. She risks a good bit of political capital on this race if it's not a sure thing for Hoffman. Hoffman raised $200k in one week with no party infrastructure. It is A LOT of money. It represents A LOT of support if it is from small donors. Maybe she knows something about this race a little bit ahead of everybody else.
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Future political science students will be studying the early post Obama elections for generations. Our grandchildren will want to know from their study how Obama affected our politics. The first place to assess Obama’s political impact will be the 2009 state elections in VA and NJ and the two special congressional elections in CA and NY.
Of these elections, NY-23 will cause the most head scratching by our grandchildren. There’s a simple reason. Our political elites took an easy win and turned it into a Democrat, liberal give away to the statists now running America’s government. The Republicans nominated a liberal ACORN sponsored candidate to a safe conservative district. How could the brilliant political elites nominate an ACORN favored, union loving Democrat to a center right Republican conservative district as the REPUBLICAN candidate?? Did they miss the town hall meetings? Did they miss 9/12 in Washington DC??
Once the shock of the elitist decision wore off, conservatives now see a true hero step up – Doug Hoffman. With little political experience, no budget, and no party support, Doug Hoffman signed on as the Conservative alternative to the elite Republican choice. Thanks to New York’s peculiar party affiliation rules and multi-party system, Doug Hoffman could, and has taken advantage of an opening.
Right now, Conservatives rally to support Hoffman as elite Republicans rally to make their bad decision right. Newt Gingrich, a once great conservative leader and hero to conservatives, threw away his leadership mantle by supporting the ACORN candidate. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) invested its reputation and precious dollars into this race. Both Newt, and the NRCC battle for the Corrupt Washington establishment.
Dick Armey, Chairman of FreedomWorks, Tea Party ‘Grand Marshall,’ and former congressional majority leader rushes now to support Hoffman. Armey is supported by grass roots conservatives, Tea Partiers, and the Club for Growth. NY-23 is a battle. NY-23 is conservative vs. liberal. NY-23 is fossilized, entrenched power vs. a popular conservative uprising.
The question many political activists have been asking is “Where’s Sarah Palin?” Many believe that an appearance by Sarah would push Hoffman into the lead. In this district, she could. This district would add a conservative vote to congress. If Sarah did go to NY-23 conservatives could handily win the NY-23 battle. Then, we would be further from our goal of a smaller federal government regulated by the 10th amendment. How so? The answer can be understood when answering the question, “Where’s Sarah?”
Sarah will do to the DC elite political class what she did to the Alaska elite political class. She’s planning a wider, bigger effort than the tit-for-tat politics of Dems-in-Dems-out-Repubs-in politics we’ve practiced for the last 30 years. Those politics opened us to a radical restructuring of our nation’s government and its relationship to We the People.
In Alaska, Sarah upended the political establishment herself. The Alaska elites were small in number. One bold leader, one heroine could reform a corrupt state government. Fixing DC presents a different problem, requires a different strategic approach, and requires Palin tactics applied differently than in Alaska.
Others have discussed Sarah's resigning as strategy and tactics. For lesser politicians - it's suicide to resign. For Sarah - it gives hope that we can trust her with Power. It was our founding fathers' trust in Washington's use of power enabling them to trust our young nation with a powerful chief executive - the President. Trust is a highly valuable political coin. Rarity increases its value.
The DC political class is much larger than Alaska. It is better organized. It knows s Sarah’s planning something. It saw the tea parties - they know how many showed in DC on 9/12. The political class is made up of Republicans and Democrats. It controls over 40% of the economy. It’s often lost in discussion but our economy is appx $14 Trillion. The next 3 economies COMBINED, don’t equal the US economy even in its weakened condition. 40% of $14 Trillion is A LOT of money and power. Do you think those who have that power will relinquish it as Washington did at the beginning of our country? FDR did not relinquish power; he died grasping it. Today’s political elites will not relinquish their power without not just a battle, but a war.
In WWII, US military planners wanted to hit Germany hard in Europe. Churchill counseled against it. Churchill noted US forces were not as strong as US leaders thought and the Germans were not as soft as US generals thought. Churchill recommended North Africa for a reason. It was untested troops battling tested troops in a relatively unimportant strategic setting. Churchill bloodied the US Army BEFORE they had to take on a fortified Europe held by battle hardened troops.
NY-23 is the equivalent of North Africa for the conservative movement. The Washington DC GOP and NY GOP may be corrupt, but they are not intellectually stupid. The Dems might win NY-23 for a year, but in 2010 the elite GOP will likely win it back. Either way, the political elites retain control.
In North Africa, George Patton stormed in and defeated the Germans driving them from the continent back to their fortress Europe. Patton is unquestionably one of America’s finest fighting generals. His success on the battlefield did not translate to success off the battlefield. Off the battlefield, Patton caused strife amongst allies and within the ranks of the Army. It took Eisenhower to maintain the team, storm Europe on D-Day and deploy Patton.
Sarah's watching the NY-23 battlefield as any shrewd general preparing for D-Day (E-Day?) 2012 would. Sarah is likely using NY-23 to gage the strength of her future conservative Army.
She's not going to risk political credibility in NY-23 until she determines the true strength of the conservative team and its leaders battling the elites. If the team is really strong - Sarah is not needed. If Sarah is needed to win NY-23, then she has to be Patton, forsaking Eisenhower. Good for NY-23, bad for USA.
Washington won with a team - a team that included the French. Only a hardened, battle tested team can defeat the big government fortress constructed by our political elites. Sarah needs to find tens of Pattons, not be a Patton. What better way to find Pattons than let Pattons and other winners win the battles they should?
Sarah cannot be Patton. She needs to become Washington and Eisenhower.
We're the conservative, self-reliant free people. We're the ones who need to win NY-23, CA, NJ, and VA. We’re the ones who have to SHOW what free people do when threatened. I and many other folks - many who showed up in DC on 9/12- have had it with our Washington elites. Defeating and shrinking the DC Big Government is THE strategic objective. Putting the Federal government back into the confines of the 10th amendment is our mechanism to achieve the goal.
Which is the better army in 2012 - the one embodied by serfs we see in Detroit, Chicago, and other cities, or one with free citizens led by self-reliant Pattons like we saw in DC on 9/12? If you say citizens - then make it so. I have donated to Hoffman in NY-23, have you? I am volunteering in Northern VA - we have a battle here for the conservative movement. It looks good now and McDonnell will likely win. He needs to win big and drag as many conservatives across the VA House of Delegates line as he can - we need a blowout
President Obama and DC elites have made a strategic decision. They are pushing through a radical restructuring of our economy now. They are dropping Big Government incrementalism that has gone before. They’re betting we'll never re-trench. During the next 10-15 years the Marxist job will be completed by the courts. Dear Leader will come back – possibly to lead - he's young enough. How's that for a nightmare?
****WE**** need to be the Pattons. We need to run through liberalism like crap through a goose. We'll find our leaders in victory.
If Sarah is doing what I hope she's doing, we don't help her by being no better than OBOTS, pining away for our leader/savior. We need to be free citizens and our own Pattons. Our grandchildren should read about a victory for liberty in their Polysci classes. We’re the ones who need to win for grandchildren. And dare I say it, “Win one for the Gipper!” Time to work.
